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Industry brief · Agriculture

Agriculture, where our guest turns waste into soil

One Building Real founder works on what goes into the soil. In Bali, Tobias Wilson's Shiva Industries builds on-site machines that, the company says, turn food and organic waste into soil for farms. This brief covers the industry around him in Indonesia, from farm jobs, rice and fertiliser subsidies to Bali's rice land, funding and the government's plans.

Indonesia
Checked 20 Oct 2026 · every figure linked to its source · next review Jan 2027

01At a glance

28.75%

of Indonesia's employed people, 42.60 million, worked in agriculture, forestry and fisheries in May 2026, the country's largest employer, according to BPS's labour force survey1

One survey round; the share varies by season
12.67%

of Indonesia's GDP came from agriculture in the first quarter of 2026, the third-largest sector after manufacturing and trade, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) said2

Quarterly shares are seasonal
4.97%

year-on-year growth in Indonesia's agriculture sector in the first quarter of 2026, BPS said3

34.71M t

of rice: Indonesia's estimated domestic production in 2025, up 13.36% from 2024, Bisnis.com reported citing BPS4

A BPS estimate, not a final figure
9.84M t

of subsidised fertiliser allocated for 2026: 9.55 million tonnes for agriculture and 295,686 tonnes for fisheries, the Coordinating Ministry for Food Affairs said5

An allocation, not what was distributed
-7.49%

change in Bali's rice production in 2025, to 331.53 thousand tonnes, down 26.65 thousand tonnes from 2024, BPS Bali said6

02How AI and technology are reshaping it

What the government says

Indonesia's Ministry of Agriculture said in May 2025 it plans to apply artificial intelligence to agriculture by integrating farm data, citing the Netherlands as a model7.

Agriculture Minister Amran Sulaiman said the government had budgeted about Rp10 trillion for farm technology, including agricultural drones and sensors that read soil conditions and nutrients8.

A plan and a budget statement, not spending or results. The minister gave no budget period or line item.

What startups are building

  • Elevarm. Indonesian agritech Elevarm raised $4.25 million in pre-Series A funding led by Intudo in March 2025 to build AI-powered farmer productivity tools; the company says it supports more than 15,000 smallholder horticulture farmers in West Java, Central Java and Yogyakarta9.
  • Agros. Indonesian agritech startup Agros raised a US$4.25 million Series A to scale solar irrigation with flexible financing, and says it supports over 6,000 smallholder farmers in Indonesia, Cambodia and Myanmar10.
Farmer counts are the companies' own.

03Soil, fertiliser and land

Degraded land

1.7 billion

people live in areas where crop yields are falling because of human-induced land degradation, and in absolute numbers Asian countries are the most affected, FAO's State of Food and Agriculture 2025 found11

FAO estimates crop yields are 10% lower because of human-induced land degradation, and that reversing 10% of that degradation on existing cropland could restore enough production to feed an additional 154 million people every year12.

Agricultural observer Khudori of the Indonesian Political Economy Association (AEPI) said in December 2024 that 75-80% of rice-field soils in Java have organic carbon below 2%; he did not cite a data source13.

FAO's figures are global model estimates. We found no official national figure for soil organic matter in Indonesia; Khudori's is one analyst's statement.

Fertiliser subsidies

  • By type. Of the 9.55 million tonnes of subsidised fertiliser allocated to agriculture for 2026, 558,273 tonnes are organic fertiliser, against 4,423,023 tonnes of urea and 4,471,026 tonnes of NPK, Fortune IDN reported, citing the Agriculture Ministry's director of fertilisers, Jekvy Hendra14.
  • Prices. Indonesia cut the retail price ceiling (HET) of subsidised fertiliser by 20% from 22 October 2025 and is keeping it: Rp1,800/kg for urea, Rp1,840/kg for NPK (Phonska) and Rp640/kg for organic fertiliser15.
  • Budget. Coordinating Food Minister Zulkifli Hasan said on 2 December 2025 that the 2026 subsidised fertiliser programme has a budget ceiling of Rp46.87 trillion16.
  • Distribution. By 26 June 2026, 4.77 million tonnes of subsidised fertiliser had been distributed, about 48.5% of the 2026 allocation17.
Allocations and budget ceilings are not spending, and the ceiling can move with fertiliser prices.

Bali's rice harvest

Bali's rice harvested area fell 7.09% in 2025 to 96.44 thousand hectares, BPS Bali said18.

Bali produced 331.53 thousand tonnes of rice in 2025, down 26.65 thousand tonnes or 7.49% from 2024, BPS Bali said6.

Harvested area is not the same as farmland area.

Bali's land: three separate statements

  • BPS Bali. BPS Bali's head of agricultural statistics, Sapto Wintardi, said land conversion happens almost every year in Bali, estimating that about 6,000 hectares were lost between 2019 and 2024, and called it a suspected cause of falling rice output19.
  • The governor. Bali Governor I Wayan Koster said in November 2025 that conversion of productive land in Bali was very high, around 600-700 hectares a year20.
  • The land minister. Bali had 64,474 hectares of standard rice-field land (lahan baku sawah) in 2024, of which 39,973 hectares are designated as protected sustainable food farmland (LP2B); Land Minister Nusron Wahid said converted rice fields must be returned to rice21.
These are different measures from different speakers over different periods. BPS Bali did not say what type of land its estimate covers, and the governor's range is his own statement. They should not be added together or compared.

04Rice and the free meals programme

Rice: the claim and the data

President Prabowo Subianto declared on 6 January 2026 that Indonesia had achieved rice self-sufficiency in 2025, and said government warehouses held more than 3 million tonnes of rice reserves22.

In October 2025 Coordinating Food Minister Zulkifli Hasan said Indonesia had imported no rice in 2025, but BPS recorded US$178.5 million of rice imports in January-October 2025, which the Agriculture Ministry said were special and industrial rice, not medium rice, Bisnis.com reported23.

Self-sufficiency is the President's declaration, not a BPS finding.

Free Nutritious Meals (MBG)

57 million

beneficiaries reached by Indonesia's free meals programme by the end of September 2026, through 27,486 kitchens, with Rp153.2 trillion of its budget spent, the Finance Ministry said24

For 2026, the government has prepared Rp335 trillion from the state budget for the programme, Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto said in January 202625.

The head of Indonesia's National Nutrition Agency, Dadan Hindayana, said the programme needs at least 6 million new laying hens in 2026, equal to at least 1,500 new poultry farmers, to serve eggs twice a week26.

The Rp335 trillion is a budget prepared in January 2026, not spending. The egg figure is a stated need, not delivered output.

05Where the money is moving

Startup funding

Southeast Asian startups raised $7.25 billion in the first half of 2026, the strongest half-year since the first half of 2022, but one $4.5 billion data-centre round drove most of it, and the number of deals fell to its lowest since at least 2018, DealStreetAsia reported27.

Global agrifoodtech funding was $16.2 billion in 2025, almost flat (-3%) on 2024, according to AgFunder's 2026 Global AgriFoodTech Investment Report28.

DealStreetAsia's total covers all sectors, not agritech; AgFunder's is global. The two trackers are not comparable.

Credit to farmers

  • BRI. State bank BRI disbursed Rp178.08 trillion of subsidised People's Business Credit (KUR) to 3.8 million borrowers in 2025, with agriculture the largest sector at Rp80.09 trillion, or 44.97%29.
  • National. Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs data put national KUR disbursement at Rp240.09 trillion by 31 October 2025, 83.77% of the Rp286.61 trillion target, with trade and agriculture taking the largest shares30.
BRI's figure is one bank for the full year; the national figure runs to the end of October. They cover different periods and should not be combined.

eFishery

A draft internal investigation found eFishery, the Indonesian aquaculture-tech startup backed by Temasek and SoftBank, inflated its revenue by nearly US$600 million in the first nine months of 2024, The Jakarta Post reported citing Bloomberg31.

Indonesia's Bandung High Court cut eFishery co-founder Gibran Huzaifah's prison sentence to six years from nine, DealStreetAsia reported in July 202632.

The revenue finding is from a draft investigation. eFishery works in aquaculture, not crop farming. We do not know whether there has been a further appeal.

06What the government is changing

  1. AI plan. The Ministry of Agriculture said it plans to apply artificial intelligence to agriculture by integrating farm data, citing the Netherlands as a model7. A plan, not a programme.
  2. Fertiliser prices. Indonesia cut the retail price ceiling of subsidised fertiliser by 20% from 22 October 2025, and is keeping the cut15.
  3. Farm technology. Agriculture Minister Amran Sulaiman said the government had budgeted about Rp10 trillion for farm technology, including drones and soil sensors8. A budget statement, not spending.
  4. Bali rice fields. Land Minister Nusron Wahid said converted rice fields in Bali must be returned to rice; Bali had 39,973 hectares designated as protected sustainable food farmland (LP2B) in 202421.
  5. Bali permits. Governor Koster said he would issue an instruction to stop granting permits for hotels, restaurants and modern shops on productive land, as an interim step before a regional regulation (Perda) on controlling productive-land conversion is passed by Bali's legislature33. An announcement; we could not confirm it was issued.
  6. Fertiliser budget. Coordinating Food Minister Zulkifli Hasan said the 2026 subsidised fertiliser programme has a budget ceiling of Rp46.87 trillion16. A ceiling, not spending.
  7. Rice. President Prabowo Subianto declared that Indonesia had achieved rice self-sufficiency in 202522.
  8. Free meals. The government prepared Rp335 trillion from the state budget for the Free Nutritious Meals programme for 2026, Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto said25.
  9. Organic waste. Bali's provincial government began banning organic waste from Suwung landfill on 1 April 2026 and encouraged composting at source34. Composting was encouraged, not required, and we have not confirmed the ban is still in force.
  10. Fertiliser distribution. By 26 June 2026, 4.77 million tonnes of subsidised fertiliser had been distributed, about 48.5% of the 2026 allocation17.

07Trends to watch

08The problems our guests are solving

Turning Bali's garbage crisis into nutrient-dense soil
Indonesia

EP12Tobias Wilson · Shiva Industries

Turning Bali's garbage crisis into nutrient-dense soil

In the episode, Tobias Wilson explains how beach and river cleanups after moving to Bali led him to aerobic digestion. Shiva Industries says its on-site machines turn food and organic waste into nutrient-dense soil in 24 hours, versus the 3-9 months traditional composting takes, and that they run across four Indonesian islands35. He says papaya farmers in Singaraja, north Bali, call its digestate 'magic dirt', after field trials against chemical fertiliser and untreated control beds36.

These are Shiva's own claims from the episode. No trial data has been published, and Building Real has not verified them.
65%

of all waste generated in Bali is organic, Bali's provincial government said when it began banning organic waste from Suwung landfill on 1 April 2026; it encouraged composting at source34

558,273 t

of organic fertiliser in Indonesia's 2026 subsidised allocation for agriculture, against 4,423,023 tonnes of urea and 4,471,026 tonnes of NPK, Fortune IDN reported citing the Agriculture Ministry14

Context for the problem Shiva works on, not evidence that its product works or is needed. The fertiliser figures are allocations, not distribution.
Watch the episode →

See how these conversations connect on the Discovery Atlas →

09Sources

One research agent gathered 40 figures from government, regulator and established data sources. A separate red-team agent then reopened every source, checked each number, its scope and its date, and looked for newer or conflicting data. It kept 18 figures as written, corrected 20 and cut 2. Each figure above links to its source below, with the date it refers to.

  1. BPS Sakernas release, 5 Aug 2026 · May 2026
  2. BPS, 6 May 2026 · Q1 2026
  3. BPS, 6 May 2026 · Q1 2026 (y-on-y)
  4. Bisnis.com, 7 Jan 2026, citing BPS · 2025 (BPS estimate, reported Jan 2026)
  5. Coordinating Ministry for Food Affairs, release No. 251, 3 Jul 2026 · 2026 allocation (release 3 Jul 2026)
  6. ANTARA Bali, 3 Feb 2026, quoting BPS Bali · 2025
  7. Bisnis.com, 5 May 2025 · May 2025
  8. CNBC Indonesia, 3 Nov 2025 · Stated 3 Nov 2025
  9. TechNode Global, 13 Mar 2025 (company announcement) · Announced 13 Mar 2025
  10. e27, 2025 · Announced 2025 (date not shown on page)
  11. FAO Newsroom, 3 Nov 2025 (SOFA 2025) · SOFA 2025 (Nov 2025)
  12. FAO Newsroom, 3 Nov 2025 (SOFA 2025) · SOFA 2025 (Nov 2025)
  13. Bisnis.com, 5 Dec 2024 · Stated 5 Dec 2024
  14. Fortune IDN, 31 Dec 2025 · 2026 allocation (reported 31 Dec 2025)
  15. Coordinating Ministry for Food Affairs, release No. 251, 3 Jul 2026 · In force from 22 Oct 2025; confirmed 3 Jul 2026
  16. detikFinance, 2 Dec 2025 · 2026 budget ceiling (stated 2 Dec 2025)
  17. Coordinating Ministry for Food Affairs, release No. 251, 3 Jul 2026 · As of 26 Jun 2026
  18. ANTARA Bali, 3 Feb 2026, quoting BPS Bali · 2025
  19. ANTARA Bali, 3 Feb 2026, quoting BPS Bali · Stated 2 Feb 2026 (2019-2024)
  20. Investortrust.id, 28 Nov 2025 · Stated 26 Nov 2025
  21. ANTARA News, 25 Nov 2025 · 2024 data; stated 25 Nov 2025
  22. Bisnis.com, 7 Jan 2026 · Stated 6 Jan 2026
  23. Bisnis.com, 7 Jan 2026, citing BPS · Jan-Oct 2025 (reported Jan 2026)
  24. VIVA, 9 Oct 2026, reporting the Finance Ministry's APBN KiTa briefing · As of 30 Sep 2026
  25. ANTARA News, 14 Jan 2026 · 2026 allocation (stated 13 Jan 2026)
  26. aviNews Indonesia, 12 Feb 2026 · Stated Feb 2026
  27. DealStreetAsia, Sep 2026 · H1 2026
  28. AgFunder, Global AgriFoodTech Investment Report 2026 (Mar 2026) · 2025
  29. Bisnis.com, 1 Feb 2026, quoting BRI · 2025 full year
  30. Fortune IDN, 23 Dec 2025, citing Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs data · As of 31 Oct 2025
  31. The Jakarta Post, 22 Jan 2025 (citing Bloomberg) · Reported 22 Jan 2025
  32. DealStreetAsia, 20 Jul 2026 · As reported 20 Jul 2026
  33. Investortrust.id, 28 Nov 2025 · Announced 26 Nov 2025; status unconfirmed
  34. ANTARA News, 1 Apr 2026, reporting Bali's Forestry and Environment Agency (DKLH) · From 1 Apr 2026 (reported 1 Apr 2026)
  35. Building Real EP12 episode page, 8 Sep 2026 (company's own claims) · Episode published 8 Sep 2026
  36. Building Real EP12 episode page, 8 Sep 2026 (company's own claims) · Episode published 8 Sep 2026